Scenario drafting
Using scenario drafting reflecting different future pathways, the HTA can support the adoption process in guiding development and reimbursement decisions, stepwise reducing the uncertainty in early stages of development.
Scenario analysis will consider the developments of a new technology, consisting of 1) Identifying (dynamic) aspects having impact on adoption, 2) brainstorm on possible scenarios (informal interviews with experts), 3) scenario drafting, 4) validation of scenarios, and 5) quantification into parameters for cost-effectiveness modeling. The scenarios can consist of aspects that can be patient-related, ethical, legal, organizational, and/or economical. The results of the scenarios will be quantitatively incorporated in cost-effectiveness models to be able to steer towards the most cost-effective solution.